Feb 25, 2010
I haven't kept up in recent days - not that there wasn't anything going on, what with financial pillaging and misdeeds in Greece being exposed (March 16 should tell all or at least most, in terms of international financial impact), economic stats from the US being all over the place, stock and commodity indexes hanging over a precipice, etc.
What is a boy to do? Players with positions are sitting pat. Players without positions are sitting pat. Both situations have rational support. I have a fairly complete position in place and for now I am taking no action. No activity in a situation like this is definitely not the same as no or passive management despite looking like a duck. This is a time for hyper vigilance, continuously reviewing every possible piece of relevant information available in order to reasses the decision "take no action". In this case the decision is essentially bullish even though my next plan of actual action is to be a short-term, and temporary, seller.
Because I have so tightly focussed my primary position during this time phase I am capable of being affected by US dollar/gold action; any major change in perception as to the immediate future direction of the US economy; good or bad news re my particular holding, mostly influenced by short-term events and to a lesser degree longer-term events.
Technically, most analysts feel that a major drop in gold is closer than a resumption of its secular uptrend. This is tied to their view that an increase in the value of the US dollar in the short run will for a while reverse its continuing slide downward. Charts from 1937 abound in an effort to support the gold decline thesis. I am prepared to wait and watch, but with my track shoes on in case data starts to make the odds of their outlook strengthen.
Economic data has seemed better but looks unreliable and on shaky ground and will mean dollar weakness. Problems in Greece (if they worsen) will have a destabilizing affect on Spain and the Euro, which could have the opposite effect and move funds from the Euro into the USD. In fact if it is resolved next month there are troublesome dominos behind it. On the other hand, it will also cause some governments and funds to move into gold. Whether China will buy at current prices the balance of the IMF gold now for sale, the likelihood becomes much higher in the event of a temporary price drop. There is an unlimited supply of dollars, but not of gold. I expect that in the end this differential will continue to move the price of gold upward towards the end of a long cycle. This will end in its own gold bubble and before that one blows up, everybody will know and want in before its over.
Corporately, good news for JIN will become public on March 8. We were pleased to be officially invited to attend their announcement affair at the Intercontinental Hotel in Toronto on the evening of March 7. The stock's individual price performance relative to the market generally, as measured by its Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been terrific, a positive indicator.
There are a range of news possibilities I expect for 2010. Selling on good news (normally a best results action in cases like this) will have to be carefully assessed, depending entirely on the scope the actual release may have, as well as whether positive commentary on the outlook is also offered. I have price targets selected now, but not etched in stone. The question will be, on initial news to what degree will it appear worthwhile to exit, to adjust or wait through the time gap until release 2, 3 etc. This will depend on the actual market reaction, the character of the broader market background, how quickly the next release might come and how easy or difficult will it be to replace a position advantageously, once sold.
So knowledgeable consideration of appropriate factors represents real portfolio management, not the volume of transactions themselves. Correct interpretation coupled with good tactical execution will yield positive results. Equal effort with wrong conclusions or poor execution will do the opposite. In an account that is not being day-traded as a technique, activity in itself could just represent churning. In a broker-managed account, this can point to a manager creating commisions for himself. In a self-managed case it could at best mean indecision and uncertainty, and at worst, inexperience and ill-considered emotional plunging.
Drawing on the logic above and further illustrated by the chart, an aspect I will consider for later and if the right circumstances materialize, will be to borrow Euros in order to buy JIN. I think this strategy would be better than doing the same thing but with the the gold spyder GLD, which is denominated in US funds. I can see why the latter would be of interest to an institutional investor who couldn't use JIN as having too small a market cap for their scale of action.
I haven't kept up in recent days - not that there wasn't anything going on, what with financial pillaging and misdeeds in Greece being exposed (March 16 should tell all or at least most, in terms of international financial impact), economic stats from the US being all over the place, stock and commodity indexes hanging over a precipice, etc.
What is a boy to do? Players with positions are sitting pat. Players without positions are sitting pat. Both situations have rational support. I have a fairly complete position in place and for now I am taking no action. No activity in a situation like this is definitely not the same as no or passive management despite looking like a duck. This is a time for hyper vigilance, continuously reviewing every possible piece of relevant information available in order to reasses the decision "take no action". In this case the decision is essentially bullish even though my next plan of actual action is to be a short-term, and temporary, seller.
Because I have so tightly focussed my primary position during this time phase I am capable of being affected by US dollar/gold action; any major change in perception as to the immediate future direction of the US economy; good or bad news re my particular holding, mostly influenced by short-term events and to a lesser degree longer-term events.
Technically, most analysts feel that a major drop in gold is closer than a resumption of its secular uptrend. This is tied to their view that an increase in the value of the US dollar in the short run will for a while reverse its continuing slide downward. Charts from 1937 abound in an effort to support the gold decline thesis. I am prepared to wait and watch, but with my track shoes on in case data starts to make the odds of their outlook strengthen.
Economic data has seemed better but looks unreliable and on shaky ground and will mean dollar weakness. Problems in Greece (if they worsen) will have a destabilizing affect on Spain and the Euro, which could have the opposite effect and move funds from the Euro into the USD. In fact if it is resolved next month there are troublesome dominos behind it. On the other hand, it will also cause some governments and funds to move into gold. Whether China will buy at current prices the balance of the IMF gold now for sale, the likelihood becomes much higher in the event of a temporary price drop. There is an unlimited supply of dollars, but not of gold. I expect that in the end this differential will continue to move the price of gold upward towards the end of a long cycle. This will end in its own gold bubble and before that one blows up, everybody will know and want in before its over.
Corporately, good news for JIN will become public on March 8. We were pleased to be officially invited to attend their announcement affair at the Intercontinental Hotel in Toronto on the evening of March 7. The stock's individual price performance relative to the market generally, as measured by its Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been terrific, a positive indicator.
There are a range of news possibilities I expect for 2010. Selling on good news (normally a best results action in cases like this) will have to be carefully assessed, depending entirely on the scope the actual release may have, as well as whether positive commentary on the outlook is also offered. I have price targets selected now, but not etched in stone. The question will be, on initial news to what degree will it appear worthwhile to exit, to adjust or wait through the time gap until release 2, 3 etc. This will depend on the actual market reaction, the character of the broader market background, how quickly the next release might come and how easy or difficult will it be to replace a position advantageously, once sold.
So knowledgeable consideration of appropriate factors represents real portfolio management, not the volume of transactions themselves. Correct interpretation coupled with good tactical execution will yield positive results. Equal effort with wrong conclusions or poor execution will do the opposite. In an account that is not being day-traded as a technique, activity in itself could just represent churning. In a broker-managed account, this can point to a manager creating commisions for himself. In a self-managed case it could at best mean indecision and uncertainty, and at worst, inexperience and ill-considered emotional plunging.
Drawing on the logic above and further illustrated by the chart, an aspect I will consider for later and if the right circumstances materialize, will be to borrow Euros in order to buy JIN. I think this strategy would be better than doing the same thing but with the the gold spyder GLD, which is denominated in US funds. I can see why the latter would be of interest to an institutional investor who couldn't use JIN as having too small a market cap for their scale of action.
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